Monitoring the Future 2008

“Various stimulant drugs show continuing gradual declines among teens in 2008, most illicit drugs hold steady.” Ann Arbor, MI, press release. Johnston, L.D., O’Malley, P.M., Bachman, J.G. and Schulenberg, J.E., December 11, 2008

The University of Michigan and the National Institute for Drug Abuse released the 34th annual survey of American adolescents from public and private secondary schools that measures drug, alcohol, and cigarette use and related attitudes. 

This year’s findings revealed that:

  • American students in 8th, 10th and 12th grades are continuing to show a gradual decline in their use of certain drugs – amphetamines, methamphetamine, crystal methamphetamine, cocaine and crack.
  • There is a long term decline in methamphetamine use.  The use of this highly addictive drug is down by two thirds among teens since 1999, the year its use was first measured.
  • The drugs that continued to decline this year are central nervous system stimulants. 
  • Other drugs monitored by the study did not show evidence of further decline this year, although several have shown declines in the recent past.  These include LSD, other hallucinogens taken as a class, PCP specifically, ecstasy, heroin, narcotics other than heroin taken as a class (and OxyContin and Vicodan specifically), tranqulizers, sedatives (including barbituates), and three “club drugs” – ketamine, Rohypnol, and GHB.
  • Prescription drugs (central nervous system depressants) remain at peak use.

Drugs Declining in Use

  • Amphetamine use reached its peak in the mid-1990’s among 8th and 10th graders. Since then, annual prevalence rate has fallen by more than one half among 8th graders to 4.5 percent in 2008 and by nearly half among 10th graders to 6.4 percent.  Amphetamine use peaked later among 12th graders, but has fallen to 6.8 percent in 2008.
  • Ritalin (a prescription amphetamine used to treat attention deficit hyperactivity disorder) used outside of medical supervision has been falling since first measured in 2001, with total declines of one third or more at each grade level.
  • Methamphetamine use has declined since 1999, with annual prevalence rates now down by two thirds in all three grades.
  • Crystal methamphetamine use, which reached its lowest point since 2002, had an annual prevalence rate of only 1.1 percent in 2008.  This is down by two thirds from the 2002 level of 3 percent.
  • Cocaine use peaked in the late 1990s, declined for a year or two, and then held relatively steady for some years.  In 2008 it showed further decline in all three grades. Overall annual prevalence rates are down between 30 to 40 percent for all three grades since peak use.
  • Crack cocaine use, which also peaked in the late 1990s, is down between 40 to 50 percent since then. 

Drugs Holding Steady

  • LSD use declined sharply from 2001 to 2005, and has remained unchanged over the past several years.  Perceived availability of LSD has been in decline for some years, as have perceived risk and disapproval among 8th and 10th graders.
  • Hallucinogens other than LSD, taken as a class, show much less decline in recent years than LSD, but they are still somewhat below their recent peak levels.
  • Ecstasy (MDMA), not generally referred to as a hallucinogen, but used for its hallucinogenic properties, rose among teens dramatically in the late 1990s and then plummeted in the early 2000s as concern and consequences of use grew.  Since 2005 use has leveled off.  However, investigators are concerned about the possibility of a rebound in use of ecstasy.  The proportion of students seeing great risk in using this drug has been in decline for the past several years at all three grade levels, likely reflecting what is referred to as a “generational forgetting” of the dangers of a drug due to general replacement, as new cohorts of students enter adolescence and replace that those who knew more about the consequences of use.
  • Heroin use was down by a third to a half from recent peak rates seen in the mid-to-late 1990s, but little change has occurred since 2005.
  • Prescription psychotherapeutic drugs, with the exception of amphetamines, have shown a steady growth in use outside of their legitimate medical use through the 1990s.  These include sedatives, tranquilizers, and narcotic drugs other than heroin (most of which are analgesics).  As a result, they have become a greater part of the nation’s drug problem.  However, over the past few years, most of these drugs have shown signs of leveling off or even a slight gradual decline.
  • Sedative use, reported only for 12th graders, peaked in 2005, with an annual prevalence rate of 7.2 percent.  Use is down to 5.8 percent, with a slight decline in 2008 of .4 percent.
  • Tranquilizer use made a comeback in the early 1990s, and increases continued to 2002.  Since then there has been a gradual decline in all three grades, but the rates are still not far from the recent peaks. Annual prevalence rates range from 2.4 percent for 8th graders to 6.2 percent for 12th graders. 
  • Narcotics other than heroin are reported only for 12th graders.  In 2008 the prevalence rate was 9.1 percent, just below the peak year of 2004 (9.5 percent).  Oxycontin and Vicodin also showed little change this year.  First measured in 2002, the annual prevalence rates are still close to the peak level rates.

Drugs Showing Signs of Increasing Use

Marijuana use has generally been in a gradual and steady decline since 1996 in the case of 8th graders, and since about 2001 for the 10th and 12th graders.  However, the 2008 results suggest that this pattern of steady decline may be changing. The 8th and 12th grades showed modest increases of .6 and .7 percentage points this year – the second year that 12th grade use did not decline.  The 10th graders, who generally have shown the most decline across a number of drugs this year did show a continuing decline of .6 percent.  While 2008 showed no statistically significant changes, the perceived risk associated with regular marijuana use, which is usually a deterrent, fell for the past two years among 12th graders and for the past year for 8th graders.

Over-the-Counter Cough and Cold Medications

Questions were first introduced into the study in 2006 on the use of these medicines (specifically those with dextromethorphan) to get high.  The rates were fairly high at 4 percent for 8th graders, 5 percent for 10th graders, and 7 percent for 12th graders.  While the annual prevalence rate for 2008 remains the same for 10th graders, 8th graders prevalence rate fell by .6 percent and 12th graders by 1.3 percent.   Investigators noted that the attempt to discourage youth from misuse of dextromethorphan are proving successful, but need to continue.

Anabolic Steroids

After seeing a sharp increase in the use of anabolic steroids in male teens in the late 1990s, use by 8th graders peaked in 1999, 10th graders in 2000, and by 2002 for 12th graders.  Since those peak years, the annual prevalence rate has dropped by more than half among 8th and 10th grade males and by one third among 12th grade males.  There is a similar pattern among females, with much lower prevalence rates.  Risk in using anabolic steroids and a drop in the perceived availability of these drugs may account for the decline in use.

More detailed information on these and other drugs of abuse can be found in the full report at http://monitoringthefuture.org/.